Portfolio Review and Gap Analysis for the Multi-Sectoral Investment Plan for Climate Resilience

Ethiopia’s Multi-Sector Investment Plan for Climate Resilience pursues a multi-sectoral approach that identifies priority investments in the agriculture, forestry, water, livestock and energy sectors that enhance climate resilience. The multi-sectoral approach is being used to enhance the likelihood of achieving the transformational effects required from Ethiopia’s green growth strategies. This assignment reviews existing investments and gaps in the resilience building portfolio, and will develop the investment plan.

Ethiopia has set ambitious objectives for strengthening climate resilience and protecting her environment. This has been articulated in the national green growth strategies, as well as specifically in sectoral resilience plans for agriculture, forest, water and energy. Significant advances have been made, and now further action is planned. A multi-sectoral investment plan, based on thorough review of existing projects and assessment of gaps remaining to be filled, is required.

LTS has been contracted to carry out:

  • Portfolio review and gap analysis – Assessing policy and programming gaps and areas of significant investment need.
  • Multi-stakeholder Investment plan development – including project fiches, and with a focus on: upscaling successful activities and reducing duplication and overlap.

Being implemented in a tight timeframe, the work involves significant stakeholder consultation and deep understanding of the Ethiopian resilience context across these sectors, alongside competencies in preparing adequately detailed investments plans.

Background Paper and Analysis of Country Data to Support Development of Comprehensive Landscape Methodological Approach

The BioCarbon Fund Initiative for Sustainable Forest Landscapes (ISFL) seeks to promote reduced greenhouse gas emissions from land-use. The Initiative will support reducing deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+), increasing sustainable agriculture, and smarter land-use planning, policies and practices. ISFL is currently operating in Colombia, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Zambia. Contributors to the ISFL include Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America.

ISFL designs programmes that focus on an integrated approach to the entire landscape with the ultimate goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and producing co-benefits such as improvements to livelihoods or agricultural productivity. For example, an ISFL programme could coordinate efforts in sustainable agricultural production projects, agro-forestry schemes, assisted natural regeneration, energy projects, water management, and REDD+ to align objectives and maximise impacts in the jurisdiction. Ultimately, jurisdictions that implement these measures are expected to generate emission reductions that can be purchased by ISFL through a results-based financing mechanism.

This project will produce a background document that will support future discussions on the development of a comprehensive landscape methodological approach. The document will: (i) describe and analyse the IPCC guidelines to ensure that ISFL Contributors have a common understanding of the guidelines and the decisions required to build the ISFL methodological approach and (ii) provide an analysis of available relevant data in ISFL countries. As part of this analysis, an understanding of the quality of data sets will also be ascertained.

LTS is leading the project, from a technical and management perspective, deploying a multi-disciplinary team of experts. The keys tasks include:

  • Provide a description of the key concepts in the IPCC guidelines to ensure that ISFL Contributors have a common understanding of the IPCC
  • Provide an analysis of available historic relevant data in ISFL programme countries
  • Identify key decisions and options going forward
  • Present and explain the results of the first three tasks to the ISFL Contributors

The main outputs include a concise background report, written for non-technical experts, and supported by evidence (in annexes).

M&E Support to the Market Opportunities in the Somali Region of Ethiopia (MORE) project

Mercy Corps is leading the project “Market Opportunities in the Somali Region of Ethiopia (MORE)” over a 54 month period. Mercy Corps is working with the Somali Regional State to provide equitable and visible improvements in livelihoods and resilience, and increasing the economic opportunities of vulnerable groups.

LTS International is providing monitoring and evaluation (M&E) support to the consortium led by Mercy Corps. LTS has designed the Monitoring and Evaluation System, which will be based on a theory of change approach. The LTS did an ex-ante Cost Benefit Analysis for the six proposed interventions; and designed a rolling baseline survey approach that will enable statistical attribution of impact to programme activities.

In the remainder of the programme, LTS will provide training for staff on the M&E System, deliver annual household surveys, and evaluate the programme at the mid-term and final points.

Study of Value Chain Development under the Sustainable Land Management Programme (SLMP) II in Ethiopia

The direct, near term objective of this “Study of value chains under the Sustainable Land Management Programme (SLMP) II in Ethiopia” assignment is to propose the development of value chains for selected commodities in the SLMP and identify policy gaps hindering involvement of the private sector in these value chains, including possible options for local processing.

  • The Sustainable Land Management Programme (SLMP) II is one of the Government of Ethiopia’s flagship Programmes with the objective of reversing land and environmental degradation.
  • The SLMP II phase of the Programme (2014- 2018) is a multi-donor support effort to scale up landscape restoration in 135 watersheds distributed over six regional states namely Amhara, Benshangul Gumuz, Gambella, Oromia, SNNPR and Tigray.
  • Norway is one of the funders of the Programme with the total amount of NOK 305 million.
  • Norway’s support is combined with resources from the World Bank IDA, GEF and LCDF to provide a total Programme budget of USD 107.61 million. SLMP II has been successful in halting land degradation, raising biomass productivity (grassland, trees and crops) and yields in the respective landscapes.

Apart from the local market and the available knowledge, SLMP interventions are not linked to value chain development and market access is therefore a constraint to the development of livelihoods and protection of natural resource management gains within the programme.

  • The value chain analysis consists of value chain mapping, research and analysis. The key study aims are:
  • Review the prospect of developing key commodity value chains for selected commodities relevant to the SLMP objectives.
  • Assess policies and marked factors that might limited the involvement of private sector in these value chains.
  • Provide guidance on how such value chains can be developed for relevant commodity groups under SLMP, or in partnership with other Programmes.
  • The goal of the assignment is to support SLMP to become sustainable beyond the project lifetime.

Development of a Pipeline Programme and Investment Strategy to Access the Green Climate Fund

LTS is supporting the Government of Ethiopia to develop a pipeline programme and investment strategy focused on the water sector to access funds from the GCF. Working closely with both Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) and Ministry of Environment and Forests (MEF) who manage the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Financing Facility, LTS designed an intensive programme of support for the Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy (MoWIE) and to generate an updated project preparation manual for all sectors. Expert advice was also provided to the CRGE Facility on possible prioritisation and application-development processes. A deep familiarity with GCF procedures and ongoing board decisions was required.

LTS mobilised a multi-disciplinary team of 10 experts, who worked in close coordination with 7 members of MoWIE, and key members of MEF and MoFED. The proposal has been broken down into 6 components, with responsibility for each given to a component lead from within the MoWIE. This helped build knowledge and capacity within the country for proposal writing, as well as for the sector to develop and maintain a level of ownership over the outputs. Each section has been written in line with the GCF criteria and guidance, and has been supported and developed via a process of consultation and alignment with CRGE priorities.

The proposed GCF programme will begin to implement the climate resilient water strategy by acting as an innovation hub for the strategy; testing a range of new approaches, which together can transform the way water is managed in Ethiopia. A key focus will be on the testing of an integrated, ecosystem-based approach to water management as a basis for building effective adaptation and for delivering a combination of both climate resilient and low carbon benefits. With an initial investment of $40 million (against an overall target of $345 million for implementing the full strategy over the first 5 years), the proposed programme has also been designed to add value through facilitating knowledge and learning, which supports building capacity and expertise within key Ethiopian institutions for future programming.

By the end of the contract (December 2015) LTS will have produced the following: inception report, provided updates to the Ethiopian GCF Development Manual, a GCF full proposal, GCF concept note, training workshop, project prioritisation, theory of change and the relevant CDKN forms and reports. The LTS team worked alongside the Government economist to guide the financial modelling.

Preparation of the Comprehensive Climate Resilient Green Economy National Capacity Support Programme

The Government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has launched a Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) initiative to pursue low carbon economic development and build resilience within the economy. The CRGE sets the goal of reaching middle-income country status by 2025, with zero net growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and building resilience in the economy. The CRGE Facility has been set up as the Government’s vehicle to mobilize, access and combine domestic and international, public and private sources of finance to support the institutional building and implementation of Ethiopia’s CRGE Strategy. The CRGE Facility Secretariat is the core institution to coordinate the CRGE. The Facility Secretariat is made up of the Technical Team (housed in the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MEF)) and the Finance Team (housed in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED).

The overall objective of the consultancy is to help to design the guiding framework to enable CRGE implementing ministries to identify existing capacity gaps and needs to implement and manage capacity development activities required to operationalise the CRGE.

The LTS team will:

  1. Define the core functions/competencies required to operationalise the CRGE based on the seven capacities of each institutions involved in the CRGE, for the Implementing and Executing Entities;
  2. Build the knowledge of the core CRGE Secretariat team to develop a comprehensive understanding of the process from design to implementation;
  3. Map the capacity efforts implemented against the core functions of CRGE implementation at the enabling, implementing and executing level, including an assessment of current and previous capacity building activities;
  4. Identify provision of tools and methods that can be used to formulate, implement and evaluate capacity building;
  5. Develop guiding framework, which will help CRGE implementing ministries to assess their capacity gaps and needs;
  6. Develop a framework guideline that will define capacity building in the CRGE process as well as clearly describing how implementing entities can apply to acquire funding from the Facility as well as the approval process needed to do so. This guiding framework should span for 5 years 2015-2020.

The LTS team is working closely with Ethiopia GGGI, the CRGE team and Government counterparts to develop competency frameworks, assessment guides, capacity development plans.

M&E Support to a Market-Based Resilience Building Programme


FARM-Africa’s BRACED programme will test innovative market-based approaches to improve the resilience of economic, ecological and social systems in the Ethiopian lowlands. These approaches will open opportunities for vulnerable pastoral/agro-pastoral households, businesses and communities in rural and peri-urban areas to better manage risk and resources, and successfully transform their livelihoods. BRACED will leverage and engage private investors in addressing climate risks, modelling approaches for environmentally and socially responsible investment. It will promote inclusive financial models and economic opportunities adaptable to climate extremes, and stimulate appropriate diversification of economic activity among the most vulnerable, through public and private-sector partnerships. The project development phase for this project was funded by DFID under its Building Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Extremes and Disasters (BRACED).

LTS International delivered the design of a theory of change and monitoring and evaluation plan for this programme worth over 6m pounds. This includes the creation of composite resilience indicators and panel survey methodology for impact assessment in line with the UK’s International Climate Fund guidance. Institutional assessment tools for evaluating the capacity for climate smart investment and the health of small and medium sized enterprises were also designed as well as innovative remote sensing approaches for measuring the impact of rangeland management activities.

Update (September 2015): New Briefing Note on Market Approaches to Resilience

Mountain View

LTS has also developed a new technology that uses optical and radar satellite data to map pasture in the project region. This is the RaVeN monitoring tool (Rangeland Vegetation NDVI monitoring tool). This new tool makes the measurement of change in pasture quality a rapid and automated process by using freely available optical and radar satellite data in combination with meteorological data. The tool uses this data to compare the relative greenness of an area at different points in time, while discriminating between different vegetation classes and controlling for the effects of different rainfall levels. It therefore enables changes in pasture quality to be assessed and quantified.

For more informatio, please visit the BRACED website here.

Nile Story

The objectives of the Nile Story are:

  • To develop new ways to describe the results of the Nile programme in qualitative and quantitative terms at the programme and project levels, including the outcomes and impacts of the support.
  • To convey these results in a variety of communications products targeted at different audiences.

The consultancy researches and conveys the results of the Nile programme enabled by the NBTF, coordinates country and partner support, and packages the findings into a suite of communications materials, informally called the ‘Nile Story’. The work covers the years 1999 through June 2014.

The Nile Story captures systematically the breadth and depth of progress made by the Nile Basin countries on the development track in pursuit of their Shared Vision in both qualitative and quantitative terms.

Building transboundary cooperation is a long term process and Nile cooperation is still in early stages. The Nile story should make reference to some of the challenges experienced and those that that lie ahead. The Nile Story aims to be ‘people centered’, with a focus on what has changed among stakeholders, including changes in attitudes, behaviors, and actions on the ground.

LTS developed a suite of communications products to tell the story of the Nile Basin Initiative over its 15 year history. The products reviewed work already undertaken to capture the progress of the Nile countries, conducted new research and analysis of NBI and national level progress resulting from the Nile programme, and established a framework through which the results of the Nile programme can be conveyed.

The Nile Story publications are available here.

Real-time Evaluation of Norway’s International Climate and Forest Initiative: Measurement, Reporting and Verification

Through its REDD+ MRV and reference levels work track, NICFI supports MRV and reference level establishment activities through bilateral support to six countries (Tanzania, Guyana, Indonesia, Mexico, Vietnam, and Ethiopia), multilateral support through the United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (UN-REDD), Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) funding allocated to national MRV and reference level establishment, support to the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Forest Carbon Tracking (FCT) initiative and to the Global Forest Observation Initiative (GFOI); and, “consensus building” activities focused on MRV and reference levels in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations.

The purpose of this evaluation was (i) to assess NICFI’s support to Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) and the extent to which this support has contributed to NICFI’s general objectives and (ii) to provide feedback to NICFI and other stakeholders involved in efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conserve and enhance forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+). To achieve this purpose, the evaluation had the following three objectives, as stated in the Terms of Reference:

  • Assess to what extent the support has contributed to national capacity building, institutional strengthening and MRV and forest inventory systems;
  • Assess to what extent the support has been coordinated with the efforts of other actors;
  • Assess the effectiveness and efficiency of different channels of support, where possible comparing these.

The evaluation was divided into three phases to aid implementation. Phase 1 was an intensive design phase to optimise strategic focus and develop the most appropriate and efficient sampling and assessment methodologies. Phase 2 focused on primary and secondary data collection and preliminary analysis through four steps aimed at ensuring efficiency, consistency and triangulation of information to generate strong evidence. In addition to desk review, extensive interviews were conducted in Cameroon, DRC, Guyana, Indonesia (Jakarta and Central Kalimantan) and Tanzania. Phone interviews of international stakeholders and climate change negotiators were also undertaken. Phase 3 involved the analysis and synthesis of the information collected, and reporting.

The evaluation Terms of Reference posed a set of questions to be answered by the evaluation and required an assessment of the scheme against the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development / Development Assistance Committee (OECD/DAC) criteria of Relevance, Effectiveness and Efficiency.

A brochure on the MRV evaluation can be downloaded here.

Final evaluation of Non Timber Forest Products-Participatory Forest Management project in SW Ethiopia

The project’s overall objective was “to maintain a forested landscape to support improved livelihoods of local, forest-dependent, communities and thereby ensure the delivery of environmental services in a wider context” in the highlands of south-west Ethiopia. It intended to achieve this objective by developing and promoting local forest management and forest-based economic incentives with integrated practices of Non-timber Forest Products (NTFP) and forest product development, for different people/forest scenarios. The project has been implemented jointly by three partners: the University of Huddersfield (UHUD) in the UK (the contractor to the EU), the Ethio-Wetlands and Natural Resources Association (EWNRA) in Ethiopia, and Sustainable Livelihood Action (SLA) in the Netherlands.

The main outputs and areas of work of the project included: 1) Effective Participatory Forest Management (PFM) approach developed and implemented in the majority of the project area. 2) Benefits to communities from sustainable forest management increased. 3) Strengthened PFM support / services delivered from government officers and Development Agents. 4) Economically viable forest management and forest enterprise development institutions operating. 5) Forest proclamation and regulations development and implementation influenced in support of devolved forest management (PFM). 6) Government enabled to develop participatory land use planning and intensify land use and domesticated production of forest products.

LTS prepared an evaluation and sampling frame, data collection instruments & methodology for field work; undertook field work including conduct of interviews and secondary data review; analysed evidence and reviewed the project design theory; assessed the scope and potential for climate financing of participatory forest management (specifically VCS/CCBA, Plan Vivo or any broader PES schemes) at local and landscape scales; and revised the Project logical Framework and prepared the Final Evaluation Report and recommendations.

Image Credit: Benoit Rivard